Publications and Forthcoming articles

Modeling Uncertainty: Predictive Accuracy as a Proxy for Predictive Confidence  
With Robert Rich
Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
See also ››
Federal Reserve Staff Reports 161

A Private Lender Cooperative Model for Residential Mortgage Finance
With Toni Dechario, Patricia C. Mosser, James Vickery and Joshua Wright
in Susan M. Wachter and marvin M. Smith (eds.), The American Mortgagee System: Crisis and Reform, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, Chapter 12, 2011

Housing Busts and Household Mobility
With Fernando Ferreira and Joseph Gyourko
Journal of Urban Economics, 68(1), 34-45, July 2010

The Relationships amoung Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertainty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts
With Robert Rich
Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 200-207, February 2010

Subprime Mortgage Pricing: The Impact of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender on the Cost of Borrowing
With Andrew Haughwout and Christopher Mayer
Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Economics, 33-56, 2009

Juvenile Delinquent Mortgages: Bad Credit or Bad Economy?
With Andrew Haughwout and Richard Peach
Journal of Urban Economics, 64, 246-257, September 2008,
See also ››
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 341

Using Home Maintenance and Repairs to Smooth Variable Earnings  
With Joseph Gyourko
Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 736-747, November 2006
37 pages / 180 kb

Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations  
With Robert Rich
Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1), 270-287, February 2004
49 pages / 264 kb

Unions, Bargaining and Strikes 
International Handbook of Trade Unions, John T. Addison and Claus Schnabel eds., Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, Chapter 4, 2003
38 pages / 270 kb

The Impact of Employee Stock Options on the Evolution of Compensation in the 1990s
With Hamid Mehran
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 7(3), 17-34, December 2001

Gender Differences in the Labor Market Effects of the Dollar
With Linda Goldberg
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91(2), 400-405, May 2001

Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets 
With Linda Goldberg
The Impact of International Trade on Wages, Edited by Robert Feenstra, 269-308, NBER, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 2000
38 pages / 219 kb

Impacts of Strike Replacement Bans in Canada  
With Peter Cramton and Morley Gunderson
Labor Law Journal, 50, 173-179, 1999
14 pages / 38 kb

Quality of Life and Environmental Comparisons 
With Joseph Gyourko and Matthew Kahn
Handbook of Applied Urban Economics, Volume 3, edited by Paul Cheshire and Edwin Mills, 1413-1454, New York, North-Holland, 1999
62 pages / 237 kb

A Look at Real Housing Prices and Incomes: Some Implications for Housing Affordability and Quality 
With Joseph Gyourko
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 5, 63-77, 1999
15 pages / 134 kb

The Effect of Collective Bargaining Legislation on Strikes and Wages 
With Peter Cramton and Morley Gunderson
Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(3), 475-487, 1999
35 pages / 119 kb

Exchange Rates and Employment Instability: Evidence from Matched-CPS Data 
With Linda Goldberg and Stephanie Aaronson
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 89(2), 204-210, May 1999
12 pages / 45 kb
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989 
With Peter Cramton
Journal of Labor Economics, 16(4), 667-701, October 1998
38 pages / 147 kb
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

Collateral Damage: Refinancing Constraints and Regional Recessions 
With Andrew Caplin and Charles Freeman
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(4), part 1, 496-516, November 1997
21 pages / 200kb
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

The Best Business Schools: A Market Based Approach
With Joel Waldfogel
Journal of Business, 70(1), 1-31, January 1997

Wage Bargaining with Time-Varying Threat Payoffs
With Peter Cramton
Journal of Labor Economics, 12(4), 594-617, October 1994
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

The Effects of Unions on Firm Behavior: An Empirical Analysis Using Firm-Level Data 
With Stephen Bronars and Donald Deere
Industrial Relations, 33(4), 426-451,October 1994
21 pages / 2000kb

The Determinants of Labour Disputes in Japan: A Comparison with the U.S.
With Fumio Ohtake
in Toshiaki Tachibanki (ed.), Labour Market and Economic Performance: Europe, Japan and the USA, U.K., Macmillian, 1994

The Determinants of U.S. Labor Disputes
With Peter Cramton
Journal of Labor Economics, 12(2), 180-209, April 1994
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

Strikes and Holdouts in Wage Bargaining: Theory and Data  
With Peter Cramton
American Economic Review, 82(1), 100-121, March 1992
23 pages / 2000kb
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››
Reprinted in Game Theory in the Tradition of Bob Wilson, (Berkeley, CA: Bepress, 2002)

Public Sector Bargaining and the Local Budgetary Process
With Joseph Gyourko
Research in Labor Economics, 12, 117-136, 1991

The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life 
With Joseph Gyourko
Journal of Political Economy, 99(4), 774-806, August 1991
34 pages / 2600kb
See also ››
Reprinted in Urban Change in the United States and Western Europe; Comparative Analysis and Policy, A. Summers; P. Cheshire; and L. Senn eds., The Urban Institute Press, Washington, D.C., 1993
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

The Importance of Local Fiscal Conditions in Analyzing Local Labor Markets 
With Joseph Gyourko
Journal of Political Economy, 97(5), 1208-1231, October 1989
25 pages / 2.1 mb
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

On the Political Economy of Land Value Capitalization and Local Public Sector Rent Seeking in a Tiebout Model
With Joseph Gyourko
Journal of Urban Economics, 26(2), 152-173, September 1989

Local Public Sector Rent-Seeking and its Impact on Local Land Values
With Joseph Gyourko
Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(3), 493-516, August 1989

Market Structure, Strike Activity, and Union Wage Settlements
With John Abowd
Industrial Relations, 28(2), 227-250, Spring 1989

An Analysis of Public- and Private-Sector Wages Allowing for Endogenous Choices of Both Government and Union Status
With Joseph Gyourko
Journal of Labor Economics, 6(2), 229-253, April 1988,
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

An Empirical Test of an Asymmetric Information Model of Strikes
Journal of Labor Economics, 5(2), 149-173, April 1987,
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

Unions and the Share Economy
The Share Economy: A Symposium, in William Nordhaus and Andrew John (eds.), Journal of Comparative Economics, 10(4), 433-437, Decmeber 1986

An Investigation into the Determinants of U.S. Strike Activity 
American Economic Review, 76(3), 423-436, June 1986
See also ››
Reprinted in Economic Models of Trade Unions, P. Garonna, P. Angel and P. Tedeschi (eds.), Chapman and Hall, London, 1992,
15 pages / 1.8 mb
Read the full text in JSTOR  ››

Books

Housing Partnerships; A New Approach to a Market at a Crossroads
With Andrew Caplin, Sewin Chan and Charles Freeman
MIT Press, Cambridge,1997

Other Publications

Help for Unemployed Borrowers: Lessons from the Pennsylvania Homeowners' Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program
With James Orr, John Sporn, and Junfeng Huang
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance Volume 17, no. 2, 2011

The Homeownership Gap
With Andrew Haughwout and Richard Peach
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance Volume 16, no. 3, May 2012

Comment on: "The Anatomy of Rent Burdens: Immigration, Growth, and Rental Housing."
With Erica Greulich, John Quigley and Steven Raphael
Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 188-192, 2004

Stocks in the Household Portfolio: A Look Back at the 1990s
With Henry Schneider
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Volume 7, Number 4, April 2001

Are Stocks Overtaking Real Estate in Household Portfolios?
With Sewin Chan and Henry Schneider
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Volume 5 Number 5, April 1999

Crowded House 
With Sewin Chan and Henry Schneider
Boston Review, 24, February/March, 1999
5 pages / 27 kb

Impacts of Strike Replacement Bans in Canada  
With Peter Cramton and Morley Gunderson
IRRA Proceedings, Vol 2, 1999
14 pages / 38 kb

Household Asset Portfolios and the Reform of the Housing Finance Market  
With Andrew Caplin, Sewin Chan and Charles Freeman
TIAA-CREF Research Dialogues, Issue Number 59, February 1999
12 pages / 783 kb


Current Research

The Diminishing Importance of Sectoral Shocks to the U.S. Labor Market
With Margaret McConnell

The Increase in Earnings Instability in the U.S.
With Stephen Cameron

Estimating House Price Indices Allowing for Time-Varying House Price Risk
With Chip Case and Bart Hobijn

Joseph Tracy's CV

The views expressed in the papers listed on this page are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.