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Productivity Data and Analysis

Features productivity research from the New York Fed and other resources.

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papers   Productivity and the Density of Human Capital The authors estimate a model of urban productivity in which the agglomeration effect of density is enhanced by a metropolitan area’s stock of human capital. By Jaison R. Abel, Ishita Dey, and Todd M. Gabe, Staff Reports 440, March 2010 Productivity Swings and Housing Prices The housing boom and bust of the last decade, often attributed to “bubbles” and credit market irregularities, may owe much to shifts in economic fundamentals. By James A. Kahn, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 15 (3), July 2009 New Measures of Economic Growth and Productivity in Upstate New York An analysis of upstate New York’s economic performance using these measures points to below-average output growth between 2001 and 2006 along with productivity levels and productivity growth below the U.S. average. By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz, Current Issues in Economics and Finance Second District Highlights 14 (9), December 2008 Is the United States Losing Its Productivity Advantage? The authors look more closely at differences in productivity growth across countries and examine how strong productivity growth abroad may affect the U.S. economy. By Kevin J. Stiroh and Mary Amiti, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 13(8), September 2007 What Drives Housing Prices? This paper develops a growth model with land, housing services, and other goods that is capable of explaining a substantial portion of the movements in housing prices over the past forty years. By James A. Kahn, Staff Reports 345, September 2008 Tracking the New Economy: Using Growth Theory to Detect Changes in Trend Productivity The authors propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity-namely consumption and labor compensation-to help estimate trend productivity growth. Their analysis picks up evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. By James A. Kahn and Robert Rich, Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (September 2007), 1670-1701 Previous Version, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 159, January 2003 Tracking Productivity in Real Time This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model’s success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. By James A. Kahn and Robert Rich, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 12(8), November 2006 Endogenous Productivity and Development Accounting Using cross-country data on the prices of investment goods, we find that the model does fairly well in quantitatively accounting for the observed dispersion in world income. By Roc Armenter and Amartya Lahiri, Staff Reports 258, August 2006 Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability This paper examines the declining volatility of U.S. output growth from a production perspective. By Kevin J. Stiroh, Staff Reports 245, April 2006 Will the U.S. Productivity Resurgence Continue? The authors project that during the next decade, private sector productivity growth will continue at a rate of 2.6 percent per year, a significant increase from their 2002 projection of 2.2 percent growth. By Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Kevin J. Stiroh, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 10(13), December 2004 Taking the Pulse of the Tech Sector: A Coincident Index of High-Tech Activity The index suggests that while the tech sector has rebounded from its poor performance in the 2000-01 "tech bust," it has not resumed its rapid expansion of the late 1990s. By Bart Hobijn, Kevin J. Stiroh, and Alexis Antoniades, Current Issues in Economics and Finance 9(10), October 2003   applications   Real-time forecasts of productivity growth using the Kahn-Rich model The latest 5-year forecast of non-farm productivity growth, and the latest assessment of whether the U.S. economy is currently in a high-growth or low-growth regime. More ››   Conferences   Productivity Growth: A New Era? Links to papers from panelists and presenters at the New York Fed's conference on productivity. Agenda for November 2, 2001